In the Caribbean, the forecast can change with the wind. After the post‑COVID tourism rebound, 2026 is shaping up as a test of resilience: the UN’s ECLAC expects the Caribbean, excluding Guyana, to slow to about 1.7% growth in 2026, pressured by softer external demand for tourism, high import costs, and recurring climate shocks. (CEPAL)
Guyana
Guyana remains the outlier, with ECLAC projecting 23.0% real GDP growth in 2026, powered by continued hydrocarbons investment. Oil output is still scaling fast: Guyana’s Department of Public Information reported that Yellowtail was expected to lift production from about 664,000 bpd to over 900,000 bpd, adding roughly 250,000 bpd. (Department of Public Information, Guyana) Next in line, the Uaru development is designed to add up to 250,000 barrels of oil per day, keeping the medium‑term trajectory steep even if 2026 brings volatility in prices. (Environmental Protection Agency) The big “solution” bet is power costs: the Wales Gas‑to‑Energy initiative is positioned to bring ~300 MW online and cut electricity prices by up to 50%, which matters because cheaper power is how Guyana converts oil into broad‑based, non‑oil growth. (One News SVG) Geopolitics still sits in the background: Guyana has highlighted the ICJ’s order for Venezuela to refrain from actions like elections in Guyana’s administered territory while the case continues, a reminder that risk premiums can rise quickly even during a boom. (Department of Public Information, Guyana)
St Vincent and the Grenadines
ECLAC projects 3.0% growth for St Vincent and the Grenadines in 2026, and the story is reconstruction plus big-ticket infrastructure. The Kingstown Modern Port is the clearest signal, with government materials describing a roughly US$247 million port modernisation effort intended to upgrade logistics and trade capacity. (Gov.VC) At the same time, Hurricane Beryl’s damage is still a drag: an official independence message put Beryl’s damage in excess of EC$800 million, with losses around 30% of GDP, which means 2026 growth depends on how quickly housing and public services are restored.
Grenada
Grenada’s 2026 growth is projected at 3.0% by ECLAC, with momentum tied to rebuilding and diversification. The government’s post‑Beryl policy package is deliberately practical: a EC$25 million loan‑grant facility via the Grenada Development Bank to reactivate affected businesses, plus targeted tax relief such as property‑tax waivers for 2025 on significantly affected properties. (Finance GD) Longer term, Grenada is trying to create a new pillar: Project Polaris, framed in official procurement as a new 250-bed smart academic hospital at Hope Vale. The first of its kind in the region and among the few internationally.
Trinidad & Tobago
Trinidad and Tobago is projected by ECLAC to grow at 1.2% growth in 2026, reflecting a slower cycle and the consequences of gas constraints. The government’s near‑term “fix” is supply: the Ministry of Energy has said it is focused on first gas from Manatee by 2027 to help correct a natural‑gas shortage that has hurt industrial output and revenues. (Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries) The geopolitical hinge for 2026 is cross‑border gas: the Ministry also noted a US OFAC licence for the Cocuina‑Manakin field (33% in Venezuela) that expires on 31 May 2026, putting real weight on diplomacy and compliance planning this year. (Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries)
Jamaica
Jamaica’s 2026 outlook now comes with an asterisk. ECLAC projects 1.2% growth in 2026, but Jamaica’s Planning Institute (PIOJ) projects a fiscal‑year contraction of 3%–6% for FY2025/26 after Category 5 Hurricane Melissa, including an estimated 11%–13% GDP contraction in Oct–Dec 2025. The same PIOJ briefing cites a World Bank rapid estimate of roughly US$8.8 billion in damage, about 41% of 2024 GDP, so the “projected target” is less about expansion and more about restoring basic capacity while rebuilding stronger. (PIOJ) Even so, major works continue: the Montego Bay Perimeter Road is a US$274 million project, reported 55% complete and scheduled for May 2026, aimed at unlocking logistics and easing congestion. (Jamaica Information Service) And SPARK, budgeted at J$40 billion over two years, targets secondary and community roads to keep markets moving during recovery. (sparkjamaica.gov.jm)
