The Caribbean economy may be heading into a new era of uneven but significant economic growth, according to recent projections from the World Bank and the African Export–Import Bank.
Their latest reports highlight how the potential rebound of the oil and gas sector in Trinidad and Tobago, combined with expanding energy development in Guyana and Suriname, could dramatically influence economic growth across the Caribbean between 2026 and 2027.
However, the outlook suggests a “two-speed Caribbean economy”, where energy-rich countries surge ahead while tourism-dependent islands grow at a slower pace.
Oil and Gas Development Driving Regional Growth
The Caribbean’s economic outlook is increasingly tied to energy production and offshore oil discoveries, particularly in Guyana and Suriname.
Guyana has quickly become one of the fastest-growing economies in the world since major offshore oil discoveries began production in 2019. New projects continue to come online, and experts expect the country’s oil output to expand significantly over the next several years.
Suriname is also attracting global attention with major offshore oil discoveries that are expected to move into production later this decade. These developments could transform Suriname into another major energy producer in the Caribbean region.
Meanwhile, Trinidad and Tobago—long known as the Caribbean’s energy powerhouse—may see a rebound in natural gas production through new projects and cross-border developments that could revitalize the country’s energy sector.
Together, these three nations are expected to become major drivers of regional economic growth.
A “Two-Speed” Caribbean Economy
While energy-rich countries are projected to experience rapid economic expansion, many Caribbean islands that depend primarily on tourism may see more moderate growth.
Tourism-based economies such as Jamaica, Barbados, Saint Lucia, Grenada, and Antigua and Barbuda continue to rely heavily on:
- Tourism and hospitality
- Remittances from the diaspora
- Imports of fuel and energy
As a result, economic growth in these countries may remain steady but slower compared to energy-producing nations.
This growing gap has led economists to describe the region’s future as a “two-speed Caribbean economy.”
Opportunities for the Wider Caribbean
Despite the differences in growth, the energy boom could create new opportunities across the Caribbean region.
Increased oil and gas production could generate:
- New jobs in energy services and infrastructure
- Expanded regional trade and logistics
- Investment in construction, transportation, and financial services
- Business opportunities for Caribbean companies supporting the energy industry
Many Caribbean professionals and companies are already expanding operations in Guyana to support the growing oil sector.
Trinidad and Tobago’s gas production could also help provide energy supplies to neighbouring Caribbean islands, potentially lowering electricity costs in some markets.
Risks and Challenges Ahead
While the economic outlook is promising, the reports also highlight several potential challenges.
One major concern is the growing economic gap between energy-producing countries and tourism-dependent economies. Without diversification, some Caribbean islands could fall further behind in terms of GDP growth.
Another issue is the global transition toward renewable energy. As countries around the world move away from fossil fuels, Caribbean governments must ensure that oil revenues are invested wisely in long-term economic diversification.
Rapid growth in oil economies could also lead to inflation, rising housing costs, and labour shortages.
A Turning Point for the Caribbean Economy
Despite the challenges, analysts agree that the Caribbean is entering a transformational period.
The rise of energy giants like Guyana and the continued development of Trinidad and Tobago’s gas sector could significantly reshape the region’s economic landscape over the next decade.
For the wider Caribbean, the key will be leveraging these opportunities while continuing to diversify economies through tourism, technology, renewable energy, and regional collaboration.
As the global economy evolves, the Caribbean’s ability to adapt could determine whether the region experiences sustainable growth or widening economic divides in the years ahead.
